June 2019
By Jeff Clow
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Okay, here’s a blinding glimpse of the obvious - you’re reading this because you have an ardent interest in the Starting Lineup brand of sports figurines.
Right? I thought so. So here’s your question of the month.
Where’s the true hidden value of Starting Lineups? Is it the figure, the card or the mint packaging? Is it the year, or the sport or the team or the player portrayed?
The best and most reasonable answer? Well, it depends.
It depends on so many different factors. And it depends on whether you’re simply collecting to add to your collection or collecting with an eye to value down the road.
So, I have an interesting - and perhaps controversial proposal - to make. I think the most valuable aspects of Starting Lineups are the cards that accompany the figure.
Yes, you read that correctly. Not the package with the figure and the card in near mint condition. The cards alone - all sports and all years. A Kenner brand manager told me three decades ago that the Starting Lineup cards were the shortest print run of any MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL authorized and licensed cards - by a large margin.
Let’s take the rookie SLU card of Ken Griffey, Jr. He was at that time the hottest rookie to come to Major Leage Baseball in a decade. Topps, Fleer, Score, Bowman and Upper Deck and other large card companies each released hundreds of thousands of Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie cards. In fact, as hard as it is to comprehend - a total of 138 different companies produced Griffey, Jr. rookie cards. This fact is courtesy of a fine article online by a site called “Old Sports Cards”.
Because of the complexity of producing a figure and a package overseas, and the long lead times required - Ken Griffey, Jr. was a late addition to Kenner’s plans in 1989.
Kenner personnel were always tight lipped about production figures when I inquired back in the heyday of the SLU Hobby in the late 1980’s, but they occasionally would let me play the game of ask a roundabout question and get a ballpark answer. In 1989, I asked “how many Griffey, Jr rookie pieces are being produced”? They said “not many relative to the stars of 1989”. When I asked if that meant under a 100,000 figures - the answer was “significantly less”.
By the tone of the individual answering, my guess is under 50,000 total Ken Griffey, Jr. SLU rookie pieces were released in his rookie sliding pose.
Think about that absurdly low figure - especially compared to the big card companies. What would be your guess of the number of the Topps brand of cards for their version of the Griffey, Jr. rookie card?
My guess would be one million or more. Maybe a lot more.
Now take a look at the current value of Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie cards. Of course, the highest graded cards carry a premium value. But depending on the brand, prices tend to be anywhere from $35 (Topps) to $400 (Upper Deck).
Contrast that with the current value of Griffey, Jr. rookie Starting lineup complete packages - with the figure, the card and in near mint condition. All over the board online, but easy to find in the $50 - $75 range.
Now consider this hypothesis.
Let’s say there were 50,000 total pieces produced 30 years ago of this Griffey, Jr. SLU rookie and 40,000 of them ended up in collector’s hands. How many of that subset were opened in the subsequent 30 years?
Probably not many - let’s say 20%. Probably given to the grand kids to play with, or discarded along the way by an overzealous wife or Mother when the garage or basement got spring cleaned. But the cards were probably lost or suffered sufficient wear and tear to make them currently in fair condition at best.
That leaves a little over 30,000 SLU Griffey, Jr rookie packages still in decent to pretty good shape three decades later. Especially the card encased in that protective bubble.
So I think you see where this is all headed. A rookie near mint Griffey, Jr. card licensed by the MLB and issued by Upper Deck is now worth around $400 - and the same card officially licensed by the same MLB organization and issued by the Kenner Starting Lineup brand (in a very small quantity compared to Upper Deck) is currently worth under $50.
Really doesn’t make much logical sense, does it?
Continue my hypothesis and my educated guess is that there are only a few hundred near mint opened Griffey, Jr. rookie cards in circulation - the rest are still encased with the figurines in the packages.
Crazy, huh? But realistic. Seems hard to believe that the card likely is more valuable alone than as part of the MIB or MOC package all together.
But I believe strongly that it is.
Remember - scarcity creates value in collectibles and especially scarcity featuring a player who is still recognized by the public as a whole and who had a Hall of Fame career.
If most of the SLU rookie cards of Griffey, Jr. aren’t accessible because their current owners won’t open the package, then the very limited availability of the card alone is apparent.
Let’s say you are a Ken Griffey, Jr. fan and are trying to put together a set of all 138 licensed rookie cards of this remarkable athlete. What’s going to be harder to find in near mint or top graded condition - the Topps or Upper Deck card or the Starting Lineup card?
Said another way - if someone offered you a choice of rookie cards of Griffey, Jr. from officially licensed companies - and one is 1 of 1,000 in circulation in near mint condition, and the other is 1 of 200,000 in near mint condition, which one would you choose?
Obviously, one has to consider the brand name as being important - but aren’t the old tobacco trading cards from the early 1900’s valuable because of their scarcity versus their brand affiliation?
You may not agree with my overall hypothesis, but as President John Adams so aptly stated 250 years ago, “facts are stubborn things.”
Okay, if you agree with my assessment - does that mean you should actually open your Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie SLU package and sell the valuable card inside? Or have it graded to increase its worth even more? I know that would pain many die-hard SLU collectors to their core.
The answer once again - is that it depends.
Opening the package destroys the value - or at least destroys much of the collectibility of the piece for a collector of pure Starting Lineups. But it literally opens up the value of the card to the much larger world of baseball card collectors worldwide.
And that ultimately creates the dilemma. Most SLU collectors wouldn’t even consider opening the package because they heard (or read) for decades that “mint in box” has been the holy grail for toy collectors for almost a hundred years.
But is a Starting Lineup package simply a toy? Or is it a sports collectible? Or is it a baseball card with some extraneous items thrown in - a figure and maybe a coin.
It’s really all three. And it’s only the owner that can determine how to categorize it.
Twenty or 50 or 100 years from now, when the supply of Starting Lineups in general is greatly diminished, the components of a Starting Lineup package each will likely have improved value, but the cards themselves will likely be the ultimate winners in the long term value equation.